Why so much stability ?

Niemi (1969), in an important but neglected paper, found that when orderings were drawn from a simulation based on the impartial culture, the greater the proportion of voter orderings that were single-peaked (a condition he called partial single-peakedness), the more likely was there to be a transitive group ordering. Niemi also found that the likelihood of transitivity increased with n, group size approaching one as n grew large. Niemi's simulation was restricted to the case of three alternatives. Also, he provided no theoretical explanation for the results of his simulation. Here we provide a theoretical explanation for Niemi's results in terms of a model based on the idea of net preferences, and we extend his results for the general case of any finite number of alternatives, m, for electorates that are large relative to the number of alternatives being considered. In addition to providing a rationale for Niemi's (1969) simulation results, the ideas of net preferences and opposite preference we make use of have a wide range of potential applications.